See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.
List of All Posters
Bruce, Lee, and the Goose
December 17, 2002 - Devin McCullen
Good analysis, but it doesn't really get at the major issue in dealing with relief pitchers, which is "What is the Hall of Fame standard for relief pitchers?" I realize tango tries to translate the reliever's record into something comparable to a starter's record, but I don't know if that's the right answer. Looking at the similarities, I wouldn't put Gossage's comparables in the Hall, but it doesn't mean he should be out. If you look at the numbers, the best relievers are not going to have as much impact as the best starters, so you're left with 2 choices: 1)Keep relievers out of the Hall of Fame or 2)Accept that less valuable players will recieve the honor. I would go with the second choice, because relievers certainly play an important role in modern baseball, and this should be recognized in the Hall of Fame, and by far the most important part of the Hall is the inductees.
But the stickier question is, if you're going to honor relievers, where do you draw the line? For starters and position players, although it's far from clear, there's a pretty good idea of the qualifications that takes care of 90% of the candidates (and we have fun arguing about that last 10%). But for relievers, it really hasn't been defined, even among the sabermetricans. I don't have a good answer, other than my own instincts. I think Gossage is a better candidate than Sutter or Smith, but good enough for the Hall? Until there's some kind of standard for that, we're not even sure what we're discussing. To sum up, before we can decide if these men are Hall of Fame relievers, I think we need a better definition of what a Hall of Fame reliever is.
One other question for tango. I'm a little bit concerned about the same pitchers showing up as similar players for these guys. Since I don't know what your similarity criteria are, I'm wondering if there's something in certain starting pitchers' records that tends to make them 'similar to relievers'. If there's some kind of bias, your system might not be giving you the truest equivalencies. I don't know, it just seems like correspondances between Sutter and Smith, and between Smith and Gossage, is too coincidental.
Bruce, Lee, and the Goose
December 17, 2002 - Devin McCullen
I agree completely about the writers. There's no rational reason for Rollie Fingers to be a HoFer and Goose Gossage not to be. This is going to be an interesting subject for the Hall of Merit to consider as well (although with the rules there, "No Relievers" may be a perfectly justifiable demarcation).
How are Runs Really Created
August 12, 2002 - Devin McCullen
I like this approach, but two things.
1) When you're criticizing James' use of RC, I think you're muddying cause and effect a little. If the results of the RC formula didn't correspond roughly to actual runs, James wouldn't be using it.
2) Okay, my common sense has a problem with a run value system that has events with the same outcome (walk, HPB, interference) having different run values. I realize there are slight differences in how they come to pass, but I can't believe it makes that much of a difference in the expected runs.
Cities with best players (October 23, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 3:33 p.m.,
October 23, 2003
(#12) -
Devin McCullen
Here's a top-of-my-head top 10 list for basketball: Jordan, Bird, Magic, Chamberlain, Russell, Kareem, Shaq, Erving, West, Robertson.
Worthy of discussion: K. Malone, M. Malone, Baylor, Olajuwon, Duncan, Isiah, The Admiral, Stockton, Barkley, Pettit.
Too early to tell: Garnett, McGrady, Kobe
Cities from the top 10 (1 per player): Chicago, Boston, L.A., Philly, Cincinnati (One of these things is not like the others)
Others with claims on the top 10: Washington, San Francisco, Milwaukee, Orlando, Richmond? (wherever the Virginia Squires played), NY/Long Island
Honestly, I have a tough time taking any of that top 10 out, unless you're making a strong timeline adjustment.